Seasonal hydrological and meteorological time series

Time series models are often used in hydrology and meteorology to model streamflows series in order to make forecasting and generate synthetic series which are inputs for the analysis of complex water resources systems. In this paper we introduce a new modeling approach for hydrologic and meteorological time series assuming a continuous distribution for the data, where both the conditional mean and conditional variance parameters are modeled. Bayesian methods using standard MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods) are used to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. Two applications to real data set illustrate the proposed methodology, assuming that the observations come from a normal, a gamma or a beta distribution. A first example is given by a time series of monthly averages of natural streamflows, measured in the year period ranging from 1931 to 2010 in Furnas hydroelectric dam, Brazil. A second example is given with a time series of 313 air humidity data measured in a weather station of Rio Claro, a Brazilian city located in southeastern of Brazil. These applications motivate us to introduce new classes of models to analyze hydrological and meteorological time series

LC–MS-based absolute metabolite quantification:Application to metabolic flux measurement in trypanosomes

Human African trypanosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma brucei. In the mammalian bloodstream, the trypanosome’s metabolism differs significantly from that of its host. For example, the parasite relies exclusively on glycolysis for energy source. Recently, computational and mathematical models of trypanosome metabolism have been generated to assist in understanding the parasite metabolism with the aim of facilitating drug development. Optimisation of these models requires quantitative information, including metabolite concentrations and/or metabolic fluxes that have been hitherto unavailable on a large scale. Here, we have implemented an LC–MS-based method that allows large scale quantification of metabolite levels by using U-13C-labelled E. coli extracts as internal standards. Known amounts of labelled E. coli extract were added into the parasite samples, as well as calibration standards, and used to obtain calibration curves enabling us to convert intensities into concentrations. This method allowed us to reliably quantify the changes of 43 intracellular metabolites and 32 extracellular metabolites in the medium over time. Based on the absolute quantification, we were able to compute consumption and production fluxes. These quantitative data can now be used to optimise computational models of parasite metabolism

Reformism, Economic Liberalisation and Popular Mobilisation in Iran

Whereas in other MENA countries the impact of neo-liberal policies has been the subject of intense debate, there are at present few voices that directly analyse or critique its social and political consequences in Iran. This article seeks to address this lacuna by analysing the dynamics of reformism, economic liberalisation and popular mobilisation in Iran. It charts the country’s move from a post-revolutionary populism to a liberalised yet increasingly exclusivist model of politics and compares this to trajectories of economic liberalisation in Egypt. Two distinct outcomes of economic reform are analysed in the first part of the article: Socio-economic exclusion; and the contraction of political rights. In the second half, I investigate the ways successive post-war governments in Iran have packaged neo-liberal reforms, and how their re-imagining of the role of the state has led to differing levels of popular resistance. Finally I argue that under the present administration, political elites increasingly are oriented toward strengthening the state and seeking to limit opposition to their policies. However, the absence of neo-liberal hegemony in Iran means that growing mobilization on socio-economic issues is challenging these policies. The Right in Iranian politics is utilizing this mobilisation to present a populist challenge to the reformists in power

PLoS Pathog

Metabolomics coupled with heavy-atom isotope-labelled glucose has been used to probe the metabolic pathways active in cultured bloodstream form trypomastigotes of Trypanosoma brucei, a parasite responsible for human African trypanosomiasis. Glucose enters many branches of metabolism beyond glycolysis, which has been widely held to be the sole route of glucose metabolism. Whilst pyruvate is the major end-product of glucose catabolism, its transamination product, alanine, is also produced in significant quantities. The oxidative branch of the pentose phosphate pathway is operative, although the non-oxidative branch is not. Ribose 5-phosphate generated through this pathway distributes widely into nucleotide synthesis and other branches of metabolism. Acetate, derived from glucose, is found associated with a range of acetylated amino acids and, to a lesser extent, fatty acids; while labelled glycerol is found in many glycerophospholipids. Glucose also enters inositol and several sugar nucleotides that serve as precursors to macromolecule biosynthesis. Although a Krebs cycle is not operative, malate, fumarate and succinate, primarily labelled in three carbons, were present, indicating an origin from phosphoenolpyruvate via oxaloacetate. Interestingly, the enzyme responsible for conversion of phosphoenolpyruvate to oxaloacetate, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase, was shown to be essential to the bloodstream form trypanosomes, as demonstrated by the lethal phenotype induced by RNAi-mediated downregulation of its expression. In addition, glucose derivatives enter pyrimidine biosynthesis via oxaloacetate as a precursor to aspartate and orotate

Editors’ Introduction: An Overview of the Educational Administration and Leadership Curriculum: Traditions of Islamic Educational Administration and Leadership in Higher Education

This chapter provides an overview of several topics relevant to constructing an approach to teaching educational administration and leadership in Muslim countries. First, it places the topic in the context of the changing nature and critiques of the field that argue for a greater internationalisation to both resist some of the negative aspects of globalisation and to represent countries’ traditions in the professional curriculum. Then, it identifies literature that presents the underlying principles and values of Islamic education that guide curriculum and pedagogy and shape its administration and leadership including the Qur’an and Sunnah and the classical educational literature which focuses on aims, values and goals of education as well as character development upon which a ‘good’ society is built. This is followed by a section on the Islamic administration and leadership traditions that are relevant to education, including the values of educational organisations and how they should be administered, identifying literature on the distinctive Islamic traditions of leadership and administrator education and training as it applies to education from the establishment of Islam and early classical scholars and senior administrators in the medieval period who laid a strong foundation for a highly sophisticated preparation and practice of administration in philosophical writings and the Mirrors of Princes writings, and subsequent authors who have built upon it up to the contemporary period. The final section provides an overview of the chapters in this collection

A computational model of liver iron metabolism

Iron is essential for all known life due to its redox properties; however, these same properties can also lead to its toxicity in overload through the production of reactive oxygen species. Robust systemic and cellular control are required to maintain safe levels of iron, and the liver seems to be where this regulation is mainly located. Iron misregulation is implicated in many diseases, and as our understanding of iron metabolism improves, the list of iron-related disorders grows. Recent developments have resulted in greater knowledge of the fate of iron in the body and have led to a detailed map of its metabolism; however, a quantitative understanding at the systems level of how its components interact to produce tight regulation remains elusive. A mechanistic computational model of human liver iron metabolism, which includes the core regulatory components, is presented here. It was constructed based on known mechanisms of regulation and on their kinetic properties, obtained from several publications. The model was then quantitatively validated by comparing its results with previously published physiological data, and it is able to reproduce multiple experimental findings. A time course simulation following an oral dose of iron was compared to a clinical time course study and the simulation was found to recreate the dynamics and time scale of the systems response to iron challenge. A disease state simulation of haemochromatosis was created by altering a single reaction parameter that mimics a human haemochromatosis gene (HFE) mutation. The simulation provides a quantitative understanding of the liver iron overload that arises in this disease. This model supports and supplements understanding of the role of the liver as an iron sensor and provides a framework for further modelling, including simulations to identify valuable drug targets and design of experiments to improve further our knowledge of this system